Could Trump’s New Tariffs Push Apple Stock Below $184?
Apple
With trade tensions heating up and tariff rates set at
54% for Chinese imports
(factoring in previously announced tariffs),
26% for India
, and 46% for Vietnam, Apple’s supply chain and its bottom line are under pressure.
Given the tariff-led headwind, at least one Wall Street analyst expects the iPhone maker’s stock to reach $184, the Street-low price target. Let’s explore what the new development means for Apple, how the company is positioned to weather the storm and determine whether its stock will drop below the Street-low price target.
The Impact of Tariffs on Apple
The iPhone maker, known for its production network outside the U.S., is particularly vulnerable to tariff shocks. A large portion of Apple’s manufacturing is based in countries now facing significant import restrictions.
China has responded with its own tariffs, imposing a 34% duty on all U.S. imports, escalating the tit-for-tat trade spat.
Apple CEO Tim Cook remained cautious during the Q1 2025 earnings call. He said that the company is monitoring developments. However, Apple’s annual filings provide a clearer view of the stakes, acknowledging that trade restrictions, including tariffs, could materially impact the business, especially in regions integral to its revenue and supply chain.
Notably, such regions include China, where Apple generated $18.51 billion in revenue in the latest reported quarter, roughly 15% of its total sales. The ripple effects from these tariffs may strain margins, disrupt operations, and potentially drive up product prices at a time when global consumers are becoming increasingly price-sensitive.
The worry is that as Apple absorbs higher costs from import duties, it may be forced to pass some of that burden to consumers. This, in turn, could soften demand, particularly in sensitive international markets.
Beyond rising production costs, these geopolitical risks can introduce new operational headaches. Apple may be forced to restructure supplier relationships and shift manufacturing hubs. These aren’t quick fixes. They take time, cost money, and may be highly disruptive. Moreover, the unpredictable nature of international trade policy means these shifts may come with little warning.
The Road Ahead for Apple Stock
The new tariffs will likely hurt Apple’s margins and earnings. Still, not everything is pointing south. Apple entered 2025 on strong footing. It delivered a record-breaking December quarter with $124.3 billion in revenue, up 4% year-over-year. The company reported strength across all major geographies.
Services, in particular, stood out, with revenue hitting an all-time high of $26.3 billion, growing 14% year-over-year. This segment’s 75% gross margin continues to provide a profitable cushion against the more volatile hardware business.
Apple’s product line also showed some growth. iPad and Mac sales helped lift total product revenue to $98 billion, and the company’s installed base of active devices surpassed 2.35 billion, reflecting customer loyalty and retention. The iPhone’s active installed base reached an all-time high, indicating continued interest in its flagship device.
Margins held strong despite early signs of pressure. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 46.9%, at the top of Apple’s guidance range. Product margin increased to 39.3%, while services margin climbed to 75%, driven by favorable mix and operational leverage.
Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic about Apple’s prospects. The consensus rating on Apple stock is a “Moderate Buy,” reflecting the risks and the long-term strength of Apple’s ecosystem.
Whether the stock dips below $184 or stabilizes will depend on how trade dynamics evolve and how effectively Apple adapts. However, the stock could remain under pressure given the uncertainty led by new tariffs.
On the date of publication, Amit Singh did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
AAPL
shares took a sharp hit, falling 9.25% to close at $203.19 on April 3. This was followed by another roughly 5% dip in afternoon trading on April 4. The steep drop comes on the heels of President Donald Trump’s announcement of
new “reciprocal” tariffs
, and the market is beginning to price in the broader implications.
