Roubini Sees More Market Drops Before Trump Turns ‘Rational’

(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini predicted that the stock market correction may deepen before investor sentiment then stabilizes as US President Donald Trump dials down his global trade onslaught.

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The chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, whose doom-laden warnings accompanied key moments of the global financial crisis that took hold in 2008, offered a comparatively sanguine view of the outlook for economics, trade and equities in an interview on Friday.

“The correction can be slightly more, given uncertainty,” Roubini said at a gathering of economists and business leaders on the banks of Lake Como in Cernobbio, Italy. “Even if in the next few weeks it looks like we’re going to start negotiations, and you get a de-escalation, I think the market corrects a little bit more, bottoms out.”

Roubini spoke in the wake of a selloff that saw the S&P 500 suffer its worst day in five years, with roughly $3 trillion in market value wiped out, after Trump rolled out the highest tariffs in over a century. The new measures could increase the average US rate by triple the 5% change the Smoot-Hawley duties of 1930 did, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The “baseline” for Roubini is that Trump will ultimately climb down and cut his levies by half, leaving the US with economic growth in a range of 1-1.5% this year, in which case the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates on hold.

“If he’s rational he’s going to de-escalate,” said Roubini, who worked as an economist at the White House during the Clinton administration. “He’s saying unless somebody gives me a ‘phenomenal’ offer I’m not going to back down, but he has to say it because if he says ‘I’m going to negotiate and de-escalate,’ he loses his leverage.”

One problem there, according to Mohammed El-Erian, is that countries may be reluctant to offer concessions to Trump if they see the process as drawn out.

“De-escalation requires both sides to play along, and for that there has to be trust that this is not a multi round where you have to renegotiate every time,” the Queens’ College, Cambridge president, who is a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion, told Bloomberg Television in an interview from the same event in Cernobbio. “That isn’t there right now.”

Trump himself gave little sign of shifting position in a Truth Social post on Friday. “To the many investors coming into the United States and investing massive amounts of money, my policies will never change,” he declared.

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