Q4 Earnings Highs And Lows: The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) Vs The Rest Of The Sit-Down Dining Stocks
April 3, 2025
As the Q4 earnings season wraps, let’s dig into this quarter’s best and worst performers in the sit-down dining industry, including The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) and its peers.
Sit-down restaurants offer a complete dining experience with table service. These establishments span various cuisines and are renowned for their warm hospitality and welcoming ambiance, making them perfect for family gatherings, special occasions, or simply unwinding. Their extensive menus range from appetizers to indulgent desserts and wines and cocktails. This space is extremely fragmented and competition includes everything from publicly-traded companies owning multiple chains to single-location mom-and-pop restaurants.
The 13 sit-down dining stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q4. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 0.9% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 2.4% below.
Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 12.6% since the latest earnings results.
The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE)
Celebrated for its delicious (and free) brown bread, gigantic portions, and delectable desserts, Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) is an iconic American restaurant chain that also owns and operates a portfolio of separate restaurant brands.
The Cheesecake Factory reported revenues of $921 million, up 5% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 0.9%. Overall, it was a strong quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a decent beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.
“Our fourth quarter performance capped off an excellent year, with solid revenue and earnings contributing to record annual revenue and substantially improved profitability for 2024,” said David Overton, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
The stock is down 10.6% since reporting and currently trades at $48.51.
Founded by Norman Brinker in Dallas, Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) is a casual restaurant chain that operates the Chili’s, Maggiano’s Little Italy, and It’s Just Wings banners.
Brinker International reported revenues of $1.36 billion, up 26.5% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 9.6%. The business had an incredible quarter with an impressive beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
Brinker International scored the biggest analyst estimates beat and highest full-year guidance raise among its peers. Although it had a fine quarter compared to its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 2.5% since reporting. It currently trades at $150.89.
Owner of the iconic Australian-themed Outback Steakhouse, Bloomin’ Brands (NASDAQ:BLMN) is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.
Bloomin' Brands reported revenues of $972 million, down 18.6% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 9.9%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year EPS guidance missing analysts’ expectations.
Bloomin' Brands delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates and slowest revenue growth in the group. As expected, the stock is down 46.8% since the results and currently trades at $6.33.
Based on a nautical reference to the first work shift aboard a ship, First Watch (NASDAQ:FWRG) is a chain of breakfast and brunch restaurants whose menu is heavily-focused on eggs and griddle items such as pancakes.
First Watch reported revenues of $263.3 million, up 7.6% year on year. This result met analysts’ expectations. It was a strong quarter as it also produced a solid beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
The stock is flat since reporting and currently trades at $17.94.
With locations often featuring Western-inspired decor, Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH) is an American restaurant chain specializing in Southern-style cuisine and steaks.
Texas Roadhouse reported revenues of $1.44 billion, up 23.5% year on year. This print topped analysts’ expectations by 2%. Overall, it was a very strong quarter as it also logged an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a decent beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.
The stock is flat since reporting and currently trades at $171.99.
In response to the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, inflation has been gradually trending down from its post-pandemic peak, trending closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Despite higher borrowing costs, the economy has avoided flashing recessionary signals. This is the much-desired soft landing that many investors hoped for. The recent rate cuts (0.5% in September and 0.25% in November 2024) have bolstered the stock market, making 2024 a strong year for equities. Donald Trump’s presidential win in November sparked additional market gains, sending indices to record highs in the days following his victory. However, debates continue over possible tariffs and corporate tax adjustments, raising questions about economic stability in 2025.
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