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With manufacturing cooling, the economy will likely slow to just 1.5% annualized growth during the first quarter from a 2.3% pace during Q4, S&P Global predicted.

Economists at several private- and public-sector organizations have marked down their 2025 growth forecasts in recent weeks.

Gross domestic product will probably expand 1.5% during the first half of the year, according to Bank of America economists, a markdown from their 2.5% growth forecast.

Business capital expenditure “is suffering from a lack of clarity on tariffs while aggressive tariff implementation, consumer weakness in January and Department of Government Efficiency cuts also detract” from first half 2025 GDP growth, Candace Browning, head of global research at Bank of America, said Friday in a note to clients.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2025 to 1.7% from 2.1% in December, with policymakers noting that “ uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”

The Atlanta Fed last week forecast that gross domestic product will likely shrink at a 1.8% annual rate during the first quarter. The regional bank on March 7 predicted a 1.6% contraction during Q1.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday echoed the view of policymakers that the outlook is unusually murky.

“What we've heard, and what I've heard, is that we don't really know where the economy is going to go,” Bostic said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Business leaders don't know, families don't know and local policymakers don't know either.”