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Dive Brief:

Dive Insight:

In January, Xeneta forecasted a 4% to 6% year-over-year increase in 2025 global air cargo demand, following a year of double-digit demand growth. Growing trade uncertainty has now clouded that outlook.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration upped its tariffs on China by 10%, building on the initial 10% increase it implemented Feb. 4. Trump has also vowed to introduce universal reciprocal tariffs on April 2, creating further uncertainty.

The shifting tariff landscape is creating headwinds for several industries , prompting businesses to adjust supply chains to offset the impact .

“From the conversations we are hearing, some shippers are clearly looking for ways to minimise the impact of US tariffs, while others will be anticipating lower airfreight rates if e-commerce volumes show a sustained dip,” said Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw in the report.

February by the numbers

4%

YoY percentage increase in global air cargo volume.

$2.53

The average spot rate per kilogram, up 10% YoY

59%

The global dynamic load factor, which measures the volume and weight of cargo flown, as well as available capacity. February’s reading was unchanged YoY .

The state of e-commerce

E-commerce volumes have been a primary driver of air cargo activity over the past few years. But the regular seasonal e-commerce demand slowdown at the start of the year, paired with the U.S.’ brief pause of the de minimis exemption on China-based shipments, may indicate “regulatory/political conversations are starting to affect the air cargo market,” van de Wouw said.

“With general cargo demand in the doldrums in recent years, the surge in e-commerce has been the saviour of the air cargo market performance. If this now takes a significant hit, if that happens, it will have a profound effect on airfreight rates around the world,” he said.