Why China's stock market is roaring after investors fled in 2024

Why China's stock market is roaring after investors fled in 2024

China looks investible again.

The country's stocks are rallying, countering the notion that investors should avoid the world's second-biggest economy.

Though many on Wall Street have been bearish on China since 2023, its stock market is suddenly looking good relative to flagging US peers.

Just a year ago, investors fled China in droves as they lost faith in its post-pandemic economy, and the exodus quickly back an ongoing problem for Beijing.

Amid fear that China would buckle from deflation, unemployment, or its high debt environment, foreign direct investment last year hit its lowest level since 1992 .

The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of mainland shares, dropped over 45% from a 2021 peak to the end of last year.

But now, while US stock leaders have suffered big declines since mid-February, Chinese large-caps have achieved their best annual start since 2002 .

While the S&P 500 is down almost 10% from its February all-time high, the CSI 300 has topped a mid-December high and is up about 5% year-to-date.

The moves are causing analysts to start paying attention.

Citi recently upgraded China stocks to "Overweight," while dropping its view of US stocks to "Neutral." Meanwhile, Bank of America has said that the country will outperform this year , predicting that the previously "unloved" tech stocks will gain ground on sagging US peers .

Pro-tech turnaround

Before this year, many were skeptical about China's tech environment, which was weighed down by disapproval from Beijing officials. Since 2020, many of the nation's leading tech names have been caught in a regulatory "crackdown ," making investors hesitant to put money to work.

But the government's changing approach toward the industry has been on full display in the past month, starting with President Xi Jinping's supportive remarks at a top tech symposium in February.

Pro-business undertones continued in this week's "two sessions," a set of concurrent policy meetings that outline the country's economic goals.

Ben Harburg, founder of Core Values Alpha, cited Beijing's recent embrace of its tech sector as one of several catalysts behind his firm's upside thesis.

Eighteen months ago, his company created the CoreValues Alpha Greater China Growth ETF on the idea that investors have become too pessimistic about China's economy and its tech sector.

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